SunSirs: The Urea Market Fluctuated after a Decline in June

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of June 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1,823 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.65% from the reference average price of 1,892 RMB/ton on June 1st.

Analysis review

Supply and demand

The domestic urea market was fluctuating after a continuous decline this month. In the first half of this month, the domestic urea market prices were weak and fell. The urea market was oversupplied, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices and a bearish sentiment in the market. In the second half of this month, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated. The supply of urea in the market remained loose, with downstream demand for essential fertilizers being the main focus, and industrial demand maintaining essential replenishment. Market demand still needed to be released.

Market conditions

As of June 30th, the urea market prices in Shandong were around 1,770-1,850 RMB/ton, Hebei was around 1,770-1,810 RMB/ton, Henan was around 1,780-1,800 RMB/ton, and Liaoning was around 1,890 RMB/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from March 31, 2024 to June 23, 2025, it can be seen that the domestic urea cycle was characterized by ups and downs. The maximum increase in domestic urea in June was 1.66% in the week of June 16th, and the maximum decrease was 2.22% in the week of June 2nd.

Market outlook

SunSirs' urea analyst believes that the urea market has been fluctuating slightly in recent days. As of June 30th, the urea market was still oversupplied, with insufficient upward momentum and limited new orders from factories. It is expected that the domestic urea market price will consolidate and weaken in the short term.

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