SunSirs: The Oversupply of Vinyl Cyanide will Intensify in 2025

After experiencing a roller coaster-like market in January and February, the domestic vinyl cyanide market has tended to run flat again since March. Most of the time, the price fluctuated between 8,000-9,000 RMB/ton. In May, the market amplitude further narrowed, hovering around 8,500 RMB/ton with small fluctuations.

In May, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic vinyl cyanide industry dropped to around 74%, which was basically the same as the capacity utilization rate during the price surge in January this year. However, due to the change in the total capacity base, the total capacity of vinyl cyanide has increased from 4.399 million tons/year at the beginning of the year to 4.789 million tons/year at present (Yulong Petrochemical's 130,000 tons and Sinochem Quanzhou's 260,000 tons have been successfully put into production in March and April), so the actual supply volume still maintains a growth trend. At the same time, due to the limited increase in overall demand, the supply and demand relationship in May showed a weak trend, which also caused the price of vinyl cyanide to remain low and fluctuate even under cost pressure.

The overall supply of vinyl cyanide is in excess, and the resources in various provinces are gradually saturated. Sinochem Quanzhou has filled the supply gap in Fujian. After Yulong Petrochemical was put into production, the oversupply pattern in the Shandong market has further intensified. Among the four provinces of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Jilin, which are the main consumption areas, Zhejiang and Jilin are still in a situation of supply shortage and tight balance. However, the 400,000-ton expansion unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and the 260,000-ton expansion unit of Jilin Petrochemical will also be put into production in June, and the supply in major consumption areas will be saturated by then.

If the 130,000-ton unit of INEOS (Tianjin) is successfully put into production in the second half of the year, coupled with the input of excess resources from surrounding provinces, the consumption in Hebei and Tianjin will also be covered, and the cross-regional circulation of vinyl cyanide will gradually decrease.

In 2025, the total new capacity of vinyl cyanide will reach 1.31 million tons/year. The main growth area on the demand side is still the downstream ABS industry, but the actual implementation of new capacity may be lower than expected.

Overall, the oversupply of vinyl cyanide will intensify in 2025, and the supply variables caused by unplanned shutdowns and load cuts will increase. Against this background, the frequency of price fluctuations may increase, but the amplitude may further narrow.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.