SunSirs: Polycarbonate Continued to Fall at a low Level in May

According to the data from the SunSirs bulk list, the domestic polycarbonate market fell at a low level in May, and the spot prices of most brands were reduced. As of May 31, the SunSirs polycarbonate mixed benchmark price was around 14,610 RMB/ton, and the price rose or fell by -5.64% compared with the beginning of May.

Cause analysis

Supply: In May, the load of domestic PC polymerization enterprises has been reduced. Due to the maintenance of Luxi Chemical, Shanghai Mitsubishi and other enterprises in the middle of the month, the local supply of polycarbonate has tightened. At the end of the month, the average operating level of the industry decreased by 10% to about 73% compared with the beginning of the month, and the average weekly output stabilized to less than 60,000 tons. In the future, Luxi Chemical and Wanhua Chemical may increase their load, and the inventory of polycarbonate has been high for a long time, the supply is at a high level, and the supply in the market is very abundant. The inventory of manufacturers and midstream is high, and the pressure of shipment still exists. The improvement of the market supply side to the support of polycarbonate prices is limited.

Raw materials: As can be seen from the above figure, the price of bisphenol A fell from a high level in May. After the May Day holiday, downstream enterprises have inventory to be digested, and the trading in the market is sluggish. At the same time, the industry load increased in the middle of the month, and the supply in the market increased. In terms of raw materials, acetone and phenol both weakened, which dragged down the spot market, and the far upstream crude oil market fluctuated. On the whole, bisphenol A is affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and cost, and the support for the cost side of polycarbonate is not strong.

Demand: In May, the consumption of polycarbonate continued the rigid demand pattern, and the new orders in the market were basically the same as the same period of previous years. The load of downstream factories is normal, and the stocking is in order. Due to the long-term weak market momentum in the industry, the social inventory is high, the supply in the market is flooded, and the contradiction between supply and demand tends to be destocking. There was no obvious increase in the new orders for stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival, and the trading performance continued to be dominated by contract delivery. Merchants are more cautious, buyers are resistant to high-priced supply, and the circulation speed of supply in the market is slow. On the whole, the demand side is weak in supporting the spot price of PC.

Market Forecast

The domestic polycarbonate market continued to fall at a low level in May. The upstream bisphenol A market fell from a high level, which provided poor support to the PC cost side. The load of domestic polycarbonate polymerization plants decreased, but the strong supply pattern remained unchanged. At the end of the month, the supply in some areas rebounded, and the downstream demand followed the logic of weak rigid demand, and the industry players remained cautious about the market outlook. At the same time, the industry inventory was high, and the sellers were willing to sell and make concessions.

It is expected that the polycarbonate market may remain weak in early June, and it is recommended to pay close attention to the industry inventory digestion.

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