SunSirs: China Natural Rubber Market is Weak and Declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and declining recently (5.20-5.27). As of May 27th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,258 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.06% from 14,708 RMB/ton on the 20th. Downstream tire production is stable, providing essential support for natural rubber; The natural rubber raw material market is consolidating at a high level, and the cost of natural rubber still has support; The domestic natural rubber inventory is still at a high level, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. As of April 27th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14,250-14,600 RMB/ton.

As of May 27th, the price of Thai glue was 62.75 baht/kg, unchanged from the price on May 20th. In the early stage, Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, and raw material prices remain high. Natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.

Recently (5.20-5.27), natural rubber inventories have slightly increased and continued to remain high, with a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 614,600 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 0.06% compared to the previous period.

Recently (5.20-5.27), stable downstream tire production has provided essential support for the natural rubber market. As of May 23rd, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 78%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 65%.; As of the week of May 23rd, domestic tire companies had 43 days of finished steel tire inventory, which remained unchanged on a week on week basis; The inventory of semi-finished steel tires has been 47 days, with an increase of 1 day in the weekly cycle ratio.

Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels but expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production remains stable, and support for natural rubber weakens. In addition, the inventory of Tianjiao Port is still at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will consolidate weakly in the later stage.

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