SunSirs: China Natural Rubber Market Fluctuates narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating narrowly recently (5.13-5.20). As of May 20th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,750 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.20% from 14,780 RMB/ton on the 13th. The high point during the cycle was 14,975 RMB/ton, and the low point was 14,700 RMB/ton. Downstream tire production has rebounded, providing strong support for natural rubber demand; The natural rubber raw material market is consolidating at a high level, and the cost of natural rubber continues to be supported; The domestic natural rubber inventory is still at a high level, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market. As of April 20th, the mainstream price for 23 years of Guangken, Baodao, and Haibao latex in Qingdao area is 14,650-15,100 RMB/ton.

As of May 20th, the price of Thai glue was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 4.1% from 60.25 Thai baht/kg on May 13th. In the early stage, Thailand announced a one month delay in rubber cutting. Currently, overseas rubber cutting work is not smooth, and raw material prices remain high. Natural rubber still has cost support in the short term; But in the later stage, with overseas cutting, the expected supply of rubber raw materials gradually increased, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is expected to decrease in the later stage.

Recently (5.13-5.20), natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, which has a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of May 18, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% compared to the previous period.

The recent increase in downstream tire production from May 12th to May 20th continues to support the natural rubber market. As of May 16th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 78%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 65%.

When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at high levels but expectations continue to decline in the later stage, downstream production will rebound, weakening support for natural rubber, and Tianjin Rubber Port inventory will remain high; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

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