SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Continues to Decline after the May Day Holiday, with Short-term Low-level Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper is still in a downward trend after the May Day holiday. On May 9, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,648 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.6% compared to the average price on May 1.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region first rose and then fell this week, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills still fluctuated. On May 9, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang region was 1,484 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.54% compared to the average price on May 1. After the holiday, the operating rate of many paper mills has increased, resulting in an increase in waste paper inventory consumption. Some paper mills have raised the price of waste paper to increase the amount of waste paper received. There are also a few paper mills that adjust the price of waste paper according to their own needs, resulting in a situation of fluctuating prices.

On the supply side: Due to the impact of the May Day holiday in the early stage, some corrugated paper factories are expected to shut down for maintenance for 3-15 days, resulting in a tightening of spot supply in the market. But with the gradual production of new production capacity after the holiday, the pattern of oversupply has been exacerbated, leading to a continued decline in corrugated paper prices.

On the demand side: The current market is still in the off-season, with fewer orders from downstream packaging factories. Some packaging factories also plan to shut down for 3-5 days, resulting in weak performance on both the supply and demand sides. Multiple bases of large-scale paper mills have issued May Day profit sharing policies, and small and medium-sized paper mills are more flexible in accepting orders, resulting in a slight shift in the focus of transactions.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current profit of the corrugated paper industry continues to narrow, and some paper mills are already in a loss making state. The price of the main raw material waste paper may form a certain bottom support for the price of corrugated paper, and it is expected that the price of corrugated paper will temporarily fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

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