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SunSirs: International oil prices soared and toluene bottomed out this week (March 30-April 5)

April 07 2020 11:28:24     SunSirs (Molly)


1. Price trend
According to the SunSirs data, the domestic toluene market price fell sharply this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was around 3050 yuan / ton, down 11.59% from last week.

2. Analysis of Factor

Product: Overseas epidemic situation continues to spread, worrying about the shrinking demand for crude oil during the economic recession, superimposed on the global oil price plummeting this week before Thursday, affected by this, domestic toluene prices have followed a sharp decline. One after another, the crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning, international oil prices have skyrocketed, domestic toluene prices have finally ushered in bottoming out, and the mainstream price in East China is currently around 3200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: In the upstream, crude oil, international oil prices maintained a sharp decline this week before Thursday. After that, Trump intervened in oil prices. Saudi Arabia and Russia have successively expressed their opinions. The crude oil production reduction agreement is now turning. The international oil prices have skyrocketed. As of Friday day, the current Brent It fell 9.36%, Brent futures rose 16.32%, WTI futures rose 11.53%, and Dubai futures fell 14.34%.

In terms of downstream, TDI, the current Shanghai cargo outbound offer is about 10,000 yuan / ton. It is expected that the TDI market will stabilize next week, paying close attention to the factory's late news guidance and actual market trading. In terms of the PX market, this week's domestic Sinopec company's listed price is about 4300 yuan / ton, the latest price of the external disk is about FOB South Korea 456 US dollars / ton and CFR China 474 US dollars / ton. It is expected that the PX market price will fluctuate next week Rebound.

3. Market forecast

SunSirs toluene analyst believes: In the short term, on the cost side, Trump intervenes in oil prices; Saudi Arabia and Russia have successively stated; crude oil production reduction agreements are now turning; In the medium term, the demand side depends on when the inflection point of the epidemic occurs and the progress of economic recovery. Next week, we will continue to focus on the news of the OPEC + production reduction agreement. The overseas epidemic situation continues to spread. Concerns about the global economic recession, the trend of international crude oil and the progress of downstream companies to resume work. Taken together, it is expected that toluene prices in the international crude oil market and the Korean market will gradually stabilize and stabilize next week. In addition, domestic enterprises have gradually entered the resumption period, and market demand is gradually improving. In the next week, toluene prices in the domestic market may stabilize and stabilize. However, in the environment where the toluene industry stocks are high and the recovery of the industrial chain has not been smooth, it is not appropriate to look forward to the rebound.

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