SunSirs: Negative Pressure, China Soybean Meal Market is Weak and Bottoming Out in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the soybean meal market continued to weakly bottom out in October, with a decline of over 5%. On October 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,186 RMB/ton, and on October 30th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,002 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.78% in price.

Supply side: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's soybean imports in September 2024 were 11.37 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.0%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume of soybeans in China was 81.85 million tons, an increase of 8.1% compared to the same period last year. The import volume of soybeans in September has declined but remains high. In October, a total of 9.29 million tons of ships were purchased, and the supply of imported soybeans remained loose, suppressing the upward trend of soybean meal.

Inventory: According to the Business Society soybean meal inventory statistics chart, it can be seen that since September, soybean meal inventory has fallen slightly and remains at the level of 1.3 million tons. After the National Day holiday, soybean meal inventory showed a rebound trend, returning to 1 million tons, but inventory pressure remained, and the soybean meal market rebounded weakly.

Futures: After the National Day holiday, the production of soybeans in the United States reached a historic high, and expectations for an increase in global soybean production were strengthened. The overall weakness of soybean futures in the foreign market was limited, and the boosting effect was limited. The domestic soybean meal futures market mainly fluctuated and fell, while the spot market followed suit. As of October 30th, soybean meal futures closed at 3,015 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4 RMB/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures market is suppressing, and the soybean meal market is weak and declining.

Demand: After the National Day holiday, the demand for feed in the terminal breeding industry has increased, and feed factories are cautious in purchasing soybean meal. Due to the continuous decline in the soybean meal market, end-users are still in a wait-and-see state towards soybean meal, with weak demand and average soybean meal transactions, resulting in a weak market operation.

The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that as we enter November, the amount of imported soybeans arriving at the port has decreased, and the pressure on the supply side has eased. Due to weak demand for soybean meal terminal feed and high inventory, the future rise in soybean meal prices remains weak.

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