SunSirs: Expected to Experience Weak Fluctuations in China Soybean Meal Prices in the Near Future

The domestic soybean meal price is mainly determined by the import cost of soybeans and the domestic supply and demand situation. Internationally, the US Department of Agriculture's August supply and demand report significantly increased US soybean production, and the global soybean supply situation in the fourth quarter is basically determined to be abundant. US soybean prices have fallen below 1,000 cents per bushel, and the decrease in import costs has suppressed domestic soybean meal prices.

Domestically, soybean meal inventory has reached a historical high of 1.5 million tons, and the amount of imported soybeans arriving at ports in August and September is still huge. It is expected that the pressure of soybean meal inventory expansion in August will be difficult to alleviate, continuing to suppress soybean meal prices.

But in the past two months, the domestic soybean meal price has fallen by nearly 600 RMB/ton, and the negative factors at home and abroad have been basically digested. With the significant compression of crushing profits, the willingness of oil factories to raise prices has significantly increased. In addition, feed companies are concerned that when the source of imported soybeans turns to the United States in September and October, the domestic soybean supply will decrease, and the willingness to stock up has increased, which will constrain the decline of soybean meal. Overall, it is expected that domestic soybean meal prices will remain volatile and weak in August and September, with limited room for further significant declines.

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