SunSirs: Weak Performance in China Thermal Coal Prices Last Week (April 7-12)

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was weak last week. On April 11th, the energy index was 968 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.99% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,561 points (2021-10-21), and an increase of 89.43% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

In terms of origin, the overall production and sales of thermal coal remain normal, and the overall supply remains stable. However, the overall focus is on implementing long-term cooperative shipping. At that time, the overall coal consumption was in the off-season, and the sales situation of the coal mines in the production area was generally average, with most of the coal prices at the pit mouth remaining stable. Traders are more cautious in procurement, and market transactions are average.

In terms of downstream ports, coal prices were generally weak last week due to the impact of long-term coal replenishment on power plant inventories, which led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards the market's coal supply. The overall market release was average, and the terminal market mainly maintained a small amount of rigid demand procurement for thermal coal. In the traditional off-season market context, overall transactions are relatively average.

The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently shows that in late March, the prices of various coal types in China mainly fell. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: the price of anthracite (washed lump, volatile content≤8%) is 997.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 64.6 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 6.1%. The price of ordinary mixed coal (a mixture of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal with a calorific value of 4,500 kcal) is 643.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 31.2 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.6%. The price of Shanxi Damian (a high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,000 kcal) is 739.7 RMB/ton, a decrease of 34.7 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.5%. The price of Shanxi Youmix (high-quality mixed coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal) is 846.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 41.1 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.6%. The price of Datong blended coal (Datong produced blended coal with a calorific value of 5800 kcal) is 892.9 RMB/ton, a decrease of 43.6 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 4.7%. The price of coking coal (main coking coal with sulfur content<1%) is 1,850.0 RMB/ton, a decrease of 128.1 RMB/ton from the previous period, a decrease of 6.5%.

SunSirs analysts believe that in terms of origin, long-term cooperative shipping is mainly implemented, and overall market transactions are average. In terms of downstream ports, prices were weak last week. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. Moreover, downstream price pressure is the main factor, and the trading atmosphere is relatively stagnant. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to fluctuate, depending on downstream market demand.

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