SunSirs: Building Material, Weak Trend of Glass Market (March 2-6)

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the glass price fell steadily last week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the glass was 20.37 RMB/ m2, and at the end of the week, the average price was 20.32 RMB/ m2. Within the week, the price decreased by 0.25%.

Market Analysis

Product: the market price of glass fell slightly last week. In Shahe market of North China, the shipment was not smooth, and some manufacturers' prices were lowered to increase the competitiveness of products. The market price trend was weak. The prices of some manufacturers in South China and East China have been reduced sporadically, and more efforts have been made to warehouse out. The domestic market in Northeast China started late, and the manufacturers still focused on increasing export sales. The consumption of local and surrounding markets is not large for the time being. Production enterprises in Southwest China are under great pressure to issue goods, and prices of some manufacturers are slightly reduced to increase the issue. The overall trend of the Northwest market is weak, the situation of production enterprises' outbound is not changed much, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is still the same.

Capacity: according to the data of the industry association, the utilization rate of glass capacity on March 6, 2020 was 68.38%; it was up -0.38% month on week, up -0.31% year on year; after eliminating excess capacity, the utilization rate of glass capacity was 81.19%, up -0.37% month on week, up -0.95% year on year. The production capacity of glass in process was 923.52 million heavy heavy boxes, an increase of -4.2 million heavy heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 13.02 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. On March 6, 2020, the inventory of the industry was 50.2 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2 million heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 6.67 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. Weekend inventory days were 19.84 days, 0.88 days higher than the previous week, 2.39 days higher than the previous year.

Industrial chain: up to now, the market price of light soda is about 1,570-1,600 RMB/ ton, and that of heavy soda is about 1,700-1,800 RMB/ ton. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. The overall trend of soda in East China is temporarily stable. The market price of light soda is about 1,350-1,550 RMB/ ton, and that of heavy soda is about 1,500-1,700 RMB/ ton, The downstream mainly purchased by need; the overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable; the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1,300-1,350 RMB/ ton, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1,400-1,500 RMB/ ton, and the downstream mainly purchased by need; 32% of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda market in Shandong is stable, with a quotation of 580-650 RMB/ ton, and the trading atmosphere is flat.

Market Forecast

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the slight decrease of the glass market will continue in the short term. The pressure of high inventory on the current market operation will last for a period of time. As the downstream processing enterprises start to work, the traders and processing enterprises make up the inventory appropriately. Generally speaking, the adjustment range is limited.

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