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SunSirs: Cost Support Weakened, and the Price Center of Polyester Filament Decreased

March 27 2024 14:23:43     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

This week, the price of domestic polyester filament had slightly decreased. The mainstream polyester filament factory POY (150D/48F) in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted 7,600-7,800 RMB/ton, while polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) quoted 9,050-9,250 RMB/ton and polyester FDY (150D/96F) quoted 8,250-8,500 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The unstable geopolitical situation at the beginning of the week affected crude oil supply, with European and American crude oil futures rising to nearly 4-month highs. In addition, the improvement in PX supply and demand expectations, coupled with the warming of oil adjustment expectations, had led to a stronger short-term PX trend, further boosting the PTA market. However, due to the sufficient supply of PTA goods and the poor willingness of downstream polyester factories to receive goods, coupled with the decline in crude oil futures, the weak fundamentals and cost support had both weakened, leading to a decline in PTA prices. PTA showed a rise followed by a fall during the week, with the average market price in East China reaching 5,813 RMB/ton as of March 22, a decrease of 1.99% compared to the beginning of the week. Therefore, the cost support for polyester filament had been weakened.

In late March, the domestic market for terminal raw fabric shipments was in good condition, while the volume of new orders in the export market was average. The recovery speed of terminal elasticity and weaving start-up rate was slow. As of March 22, the weaving start-up rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was over 70%, with the main focus on purchasing polyester filament being on demand. Mainstream polyester factories continued to accumulate inventory and actively shipped goods. It is expected that as terminal textiles gradually enter the peak season market, demand in the future is expected to improve.

Market outlook

In the future, the cost side is still favorable, and geopolitical risks may further push up crude oil prices. At the same time, with the expectation of concentrated maintenance in Asia and new PTA investment on the demand side in the second quarter of PX, the price focus of PX will continue to rise. However, with sufficient supply of PTA goods and inventory still at a high level, it is expected that PTA may continue its weak trend. From the demand side, as the downstream is approaching the stocking cycle, there is a strong mentality of buying on dips. In addition, the continuous accumulation of inventory in polyester filament factories has led to relatively high shipping pressure. Their shipping enthusiasm is high, which may drive a slight rebound in the polyester filament market price.

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