SunSirs: Wastepaper and Corrugated Paper Declined and Experienced Short-term Weak Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of wastepaper in Zhejiang Province has recently dropped significantly. On March 9, 2024, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1490 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.61% compared to the average price on March 1. The price of corrugated paper has fluctuated downward. On March 9th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated base paper was 2,770 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the average price on March 1st.

From the observation of market changes, in March, the domestic wastepaper market showed a weak trend and the price was constantly lowered. With the commencement of packaging stations after the RMBxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival and the arrival of wastepaper accumulated during the holidays, the wastepaper volume of packaging stations continued to rise and the inventory of packaging stations increased dramatically. After the holiday, the production situation of the paper mill has not been fully released, and coupled with the sufficient procurement of wastepaper by the paper mill before the year, the demand for wastepaper by the paper mill is not good. In the context of the increasing amount of wastepaper received by paper mills, they have successively lowered the purchase prices of wastepaper.

Recently, the price of corrugated base paper has fluctuated downward. In terms of supply, the current production situation of corrugated paper mills has further resumed, and most paper mills have basically returned to normal levels before the holiday. In addition, China continues to implement a zero tariff policy on imported corrugated paper, and the price of imported corrugated paper is relatively low. As a result, the overall volume of imported corrugated paper arriving at the port in March was relatively high, further increasing the supply pressure on domestic corrugated paper.

In terms of demand, with the deepening of packaging factory construction, the follow-up of terminal orders is limited, resulting in a decrease in the willingness of packaging factories to purchase corrugated paper, a slowdown in the speed of paper factory shipments, and an increase in inventory pressure. In a state of strong supply and weak demand, the price of corrugated paper is weak. The price decline of the main raw material waste yellow cardboard has led to a downward trend in the cost of corrugated paper, resulting in a weakening of cost support.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the increase in the amount of waste yellow board paper received by paper mills has led to a continuous decrease in the purchase price of wastepaper, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is heating up. However, corrugated paper is still in a relatively low demand season in March, and downstream buyers are not enthusiastic about replenishing inventory. The demand side is weak, and the market supply and demand game continues. The wait-and-see sentiment is significantly increasing, and it is expected that the prices of wastepaper and corrugated paper will be weak and volatile in the short term.

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