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SunSirs: Demand Driven, with China Gasoline Falling and Diesel Rising in Late February

March 01 2024 10:54:54     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of domestic refined gasoline and diesel in late February was divided. As of the end of the month, the price of 92# gasoline in China was 8,650.2 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 1.40% in late February; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,154.4 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.96% in the latter half of the year.

Cost side: crude oil fluctuates in the range, and cost support still exists

Recently, the international oil price range has been mainly volatile. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $82.15 per barrel. During the Spring Festival, crude oil prices rose significantly, and after the holiday, the crude oil market was mainly volatile. On the one hand, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the main driving factor for the crude oil market; In addition, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries is also a major factor supporting oil prices. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has issued hawkish signals, delaying interest rate cuts and suppressing market confidence; The total number of oil and natural gas drilling rigs of state-owned energy enterprises has increased to the highest level since August 2023, and crude oil prices have been suppressed. The crude oil market is mainly volatile, and costs still have support in the domestic refined oil market.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a slight decrease in supply

Recently, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly declined. In February, Shenchi Chemical underwent a full plant overhaul, and sales during the Spring Festival holiday were average. In order to control inventory, the operating rate of Shandong refineries has slightly declined. The decrease in supply of refineries has provided some support for the price of refined oil, and the decline in the refined oil market is limited.

Demand side: Demand driven, strong diesel and weak gasoline in late February

In terms of gasoline, after the holiday, it has been supported by downstream restocking demand, resulting in a slight increase in gasoline prices. However, with the completion of restocking and the impact of rainy and snowy weather, travel has been restricted, and gasoline demand has gradually declined, leading to a downward trend in gasoline market prices. In terms of diesel, some regions in China have experienced rainy and snowy weather, and engineering infrastructure has not yet resumed work. However, previously, Shandong Refinery was affected by snowfall, and prices were under pressure. Later, with the recovery of logistics transportation, the diesel market experienced a tentative increase, and in late February, the diesel market price trend rose.

Currently, there is still a long short game in the crude oil market, and in the short term, crude oil will still be affected by the geopolitical situation, and the price will remain relatively rigid. Shandong's refining production has slightly declined, with a slight decrease in supply; In terms of demand, there is no holiday support in the short term, coupled with the impact of rainy and snowy weather on travel, gasoline demand has not improved, and it is difficult for gasoline prices to rise; The demand for diesel has slightly increased, and the diesel market trend is relatively strong in the short term.

 

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