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SunSirs: Multiple Favorable Factors, the Phenol Market Is Optimistic after the Holiday

February 18 2024 09:42:45     SunSirs (John)

During the Spring Festival holiday, raw materials were driving up the price of pure benzene, and the phenol market during the holiday was basically in a closed state. On February 13th, Lihuayi Weiyuan announced a price increase of 100 RMB/ton to execute 7,700 RMB/ton for phenol, which attracted market attention. With the return to the market after the holiday, the market needs to be clarified. However, in the days before the start of construction, market activity in some regions has increased, and there is a high probability of price increase on the first day of opening.

On the cost side, there may be support. The spot price of pure benzene on the 8th was around 8,600 RMB/ton, which was a sharp difference from downstream phenol prices. However, with the phenol market closed before the holiday, there are few quotations that have not been followed up. After the holiday, the cost side continues to rise, and phenol is supported by the cost side, with a high probability of an upward trend.

In January, there were three sets of equipment for maintenance, involving a total production capacity of 480,000 tons per year. In July, CNOOC Shell's 350,000 tons per year phenol ketone equipment was shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is still uncertain. The Yanshan Petrochemical East Zone equipment was shut down on November 22, and the restart time is under consideration. The Yangzhou Shiyou 320,000 tons per year phenol ketone equipment was shut down from January 2-8.

Some factories have not yet started construction during the holiday, and demand has increased. The production situation of downstream factories during the holiday varies, with some operating enterprises mainly digesting inventory. This year's holiday is relatively long, and the inventory situation of their factories needs to be focused on. Currently, the phenol market is improving, which may stimulate downstream demand to follow up.

There is not much change in the supply side. During the holiday period, there is a shortage of imported goods, but the amount of domestic trade resources in the port has increased. Considering the downstream stocking demand after the holiday, the increase in supply is also within a reasonable range.

From the perspective of the business community, from the cost and demand sides, phenol has shown an upward trend after the holiday, with little impact on the supply side and high enthusiasm on the demand side. Continue to monitor the post holiday cost price trend and the price adjustment of major phenol factories.

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