SunSirs: China BR Market Fluctuates Upwards

Recently (1.15-1.31), the market for BR has fluctuated upwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 31st, the market price of BR in East China was 12,340 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.82% from 12,440 RMB/ton on the 15th, and the low point during the cycle was 12,200 RMB/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene has once again risen, and the cost center of BR has shifted upwards. Downstream tire factories are operating steadily, and there is a strong demand for BR; Multiple devices have restarted, and the supply of BR has increased recently. At the end of the month, the factory price of enterprises increased by 200 RMB/ton, which supported the market atmosphere. Some merchants reported an increase in prices. As of January 31, the price increase of Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 12500 RMB/ton, and the mainstream prices of Shunding Rubber in Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Yanshan, Qilu and other regions in East China were 12,300-12,700 RMB/ton; Private poly butadiene rubber costs 12,000-12,100 RMB/ton.

Recently (1.15-1.31), the price of butadiene continued to rise, and the cost center of BR increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 31st, the price of butadiene was 9,493 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.33% from 8,928 RMB/ton on the 15th.

In recent days (1.15-1.31), the natural rubber market has fluctuated slightly and declined, with weak support for BR. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of January 31st, the price was 12,720 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from 12,820 RMB/ton on the 15th. The high point during the cycle was 12,930 RMB/ton, and the low point was 12,700 RMB/ton.

Demand side: Downstream all steel tires continue to rise slightly, and semi tire production is stable, providing rigid support for BR. It is understood that as of late January 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was around 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is around 7.2%.

SunSirs analysts believe that raw material prices will continue to rise, and the cost support for BR will strengthen. In the near future, the plan to restart parking facilities will restart, and the supply of BR will return to loose. Downstream tire production will continue to operate steadily at a medium level. Overall, the spot market for BR will slightly rise in the short term under the push of costs.

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