SunSirs: China BR Market has slightly Increased

Recently (12.18-12.27), the market for BR has slightly increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 27th, the market price of BR in East China was 12,390 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.47% from 11,860 RMB/ton on December 18th.

The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of BR has significantly increased. Downstream tire factories have experienced narrow fluctuations in production, and demand for BR is slightly weak. Recently, the supply of BR has been relatively tight, providing some support for BR. As of December 27th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company's Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised its price by 12,300 RMB/ton, while the mainstream prices in the Shunding rubber market in eastern China, such as Daqing, Sichuan, Yangtze, Yanshan, and Qilu, are reported at 12,200-12,600 RMB/ton; Private polyBR costs 11,900-12,000 RMB/ton.

Recently (from December 18th to December 27th), the production of domestic BR plants has decreased, and Qilu Petrochemical's BR plant has been shut down since December 24th due to unforeseen circumstances; The 100,000 ton/year nickel/neodymium series BR flexible device of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. will be shut down for maintenance starting from December 20th.

Recently (12.18-12.27), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost center of BR has increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 27th, the price of butadiene was 8,503 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.52% from 8,058 RMB/ton on December 18th.

Recently (12.18-12.27), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and risen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market has rebounded. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of December 27th, the price was 12,880 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.04% from 12,380 RMB/ton on December 18th.

Demand side: Recently (12.18-12.27), there has been a slight adjustment in the production of all steel tires, with weak demand for rubber. It is understood that as of late December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 5.7%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the raw material price has significantly increased, and the cost of BR is on the rise. Recently, due to the shutdown of BR plants such as Maoming Petrochemical and Qilu, the supply of BR is relatively tight, but the demand is entering the off-season and weakening. It is expected that the spot market of BR will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

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