SunSirs: Building Material, Slow Domestic Demand, glass price was Stable Last Week (February 17-21)

Price Trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of glass was stable last week, with an average price of 20.47 RMB/ m2.

Market Analysis

Product: the price of glass was basically stable last week. The glass enterprises return to work slowly, and the return rate of downstream enterprises is not high. In terms of regions, the restrictions on road transportation in Shahe area have been improved, and the inventory of production enterprises has been slightly improved. In North China, the downstream enterprises are under construction, and the inventory pressure of the production enterprises is too high. Some factories in Central China are short of supply of raw and combustion materials, and their main purpose is to maintain production. In terms of transportation, there is a small amount of shipping and little change in outbound situation. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises in South China has increased, and the demand is improving. In order to increase the funds for outbound and withdrawal, the price of production enterprises has been adjusted. The overall outbound situation of the enterprise has slightly improved. The inventory pressure of southwest and northwest production enterprises is relatively large, and the demand is basically not improved. The overall trend of Northeast China is better than other regions, with stable operation as the main factor.

Capacity: there was no capacity change last week. There were cold repair production line and cold repair production line will be postponed to about March. Some production lines are affected by factors such as high inventory and tight supply of raw and fuel materials, and other manufacturers have plans to limit production later. According to the data of Industry Association, the utilization rate of glass capacity on February 21, 2020 was 68.69%; it was 0.00% higher than last week and 0.01% higher than last year; after eliminating excess capacity, the utilization rate of glass capacity was 81.56%, 0.00% higher than last week and -0.58% higher than last year. The production capacity of glass in process was 927.72 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0 million heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 17.22 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. On February 21, 2020, the inventory of the industry was 46.92 million heavy boxes, an increase of 1.41 million heavy boxes on a month on week basis, and an increase of 5.33 million heavy boxes on a year-on-year basis. Weekend inventory days were 18.46 days, 0.55 days higher than the previous week, 1.79 days higher than last year.

Industrial chain: up to now, the overall trend of soda ash in Central China has been temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1,300-1,350 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1,400-1,500 RMB/ ton, the downstream is mainly rigid and purchased by needs. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more sorted and operated in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1,350-1,550 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1,500-1,700 RMB/ ton, the downstream is mainly rigid and purchased by needs. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1,570-1,600 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1,550-1,600 RMB/ ton. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be narrower in the short term.

Market Forecast

SunSirs expects the glass market to be stable in the short term. Affected by the epidemic of COVID-19, the downstream processing enterprises generally not start-up, the production enterprises are more limited, and the domestic demand is rising slowly. In the short term, the overall market demand can be maintained for a period of time. The price is mainly stable, supplemented by a small downward tilt.

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