SunSirs: Cement Prices in East China Fluctuate and Fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, cement in East China has been experiencing a weak decline recently. The price of No. 1 cement is 325.00 RMB/ton, while the price of No. 27 cement is 320.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.54%. The current price has dropped by 21.38% year-on-year.

Recently, cement prices have declined in some areas of East China. The cement market has experienced slight fluctuations in the past three months, with prices continuing to decline this month. The cement production in October was 191.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; The cement production from January to October was 1,685.85 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Although production has decreased, downstream demand is average and price support is limited. In October 2023, China exported 440,000 tons of cement and cement clinker, a year-on-year increase of 163.2%; From January to October, the cumulative export volume was 3.05 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 132.8%. At present, although there are exports in China, the cement inventory is high, the cement shipment situation is poor, and the market continues to decline.

Recently, the price of thermal coal has fluctuated slightly. In terms of origin, most coal mines in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi maintain normal production, and coal supply is relatively stable. Some coal mines have already stopped for maintenance due to the completion of this month's production plan. Individual coal mines adjust coal prices up and down based on sales.. As the weather cools down, the demand for thermal coal from power plants increases, but overall demand may be limited, so there may be limited room for growth. Specifically, it depends on downstream market demand.

From January to October, the national real estate development investment was 9,592.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%; Among them, residential investment was 7,279.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 8.8%. Downstream funding issues are still ongoing, and demand recovery is poor. Specifically, the marginal investment in real estate has weakened again, and it is still bottoming out in the short term, with weak support for the cement market.

According to the forecast of SunSirs, some areas have started staggered production, but cement demand is unlikely to improve and inventory remains high. Therefore, cement product analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the cement market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term.

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