SunSirs: Long Short Game, China PP Market is Stable with Small Fluctuation

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the recent PP market has been mainly volatile, with prices of various wire drawing brands falling within a narrow range. As of November 21st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7,757.14 RMB/ton, with an increase or decrease of +0.09% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil has recently weakened due to Russia's tariff adjustment and demand, while the domestic propylene market has been affected by the decline in crude oil prices. In terms of PDH, prices have increased due to the increase in transportation costs of natural gas and propane. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, and overall support for PP is average.

The flow of raw materials varies in all directions, and the cost side lacks strong support for PP. In terms of industry load, although there have been new production units in the polypropylene industry recently, some enterprises have had unplanned maintenance, with an average load of around 76%, a narrow decrease compared to the previous ten days. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and it is expected that there will be a steady increase in construction in the future, but the magnitude is not significant, and the pressure on on-site supply will remain. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production has remained at around 46%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises has remained above 60%, and the overall position has remained stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations when picking up goods, with average trading activity on the market, and the overall fluctuation of the wire drawing material market.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 21, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has stabilized and operated. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7,675 RMB/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 4.60% decrease compared to the same period last year. Recently, the load of downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, has remained the same as in the previous period, with an operating rate of over 38%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is step-by-step, and the prices of non-woven fabrics are in line with the market. The digestion speed of end products is average. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to operate in a narrow range due to the game market trend.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has experienced narrow fluctuations. As of November 21st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs is about 8,262.50 RMB/ton, which is a -1.05% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month, and a 8.53% decrease compared to the same period last year. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the impact of seasonal changes has also driven the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials generally. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a narrow consolidation market.

SunSirs PP analysts believe that the recent consolidation and operation of the polypropylene market is the main trend. The trend of upstream raw materials is mixed, and the cost side provides general support for the market. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of construction, and their procurement operations are biased towards just needs. In the short term, the new production and temporary inspection of PP devices will remain unchanged, and it is expected that the PP market will maintain consolidation and operation in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor international crude oil related news.

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