SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices Show an Upward Trend, with Short-term Fluctuations and Consolidation

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood wood pulp have shown an upward trend since November. On November 10th, the average market price of softwood pulp in the Shandong region was 6,240 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.46% compared to the average price of 6,090 RMB/ton on November 1st. On November 10th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 5,480 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the average price of 5,400 RMB/ton on November 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot prices of softwood pulp and hardwood wood pulp have both shown an upward trend in recent times. However, the futures prices of pulp saw a significant decline on November 9th. On the supply side, the quotation for external pulp continued to rise in November, providing support for the domestic market. The international inventory of pulp shows a trend of destocking, and the domestic spot wood pulp circulation source has not significantly improved compared to the previous period. According to customs data, China imported 3.054 million tons of pulp in October, a year-on-year increase of 34.5%. The pattern of high import volume has not changed.

In terms of demand, the current downstream paper boom has differentiated, with the operating rate and production and sales volume of double adhesive paper and coated paper mills rebounding. Market feedback shows that downstream paper mills have abundant orders, and the high opening rate may continue until before the Spring Festival. However, in terms of household paper, the production situation continues to be sluggish, and inventory pressure is still at a historical high.

In terms of futures, on November 10th, the opening price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange pulp futures contract SP2401 was 5,910 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 5,956 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 2.02%, a trading volume of 712,700 hands, and a position of 265,695 hands.

SunSirs wood pulp analysts believe that with the significant decline in pulp futures prices, spot prices of wood pulp may experience a downward trend. In addition, downstream paper mills are often restocking according to demand, leading to a decrease in purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the short-term spot prices of wood pulp may fluctuate and consolidate.

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