SunSirs: The Natural Rubber Market is Volatile and Weak in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall trend of natural rubber has risen after the holiday. The spot rubber market in China's natural rubber market was around 13,160 RMB/ton on October 24th, and around 13,280 RMB/ton on October 16th, a decrease of 0.90%.

Influencing factors:

1. Port inventory continues to decline due to output constraints

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. The rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas is still high, which hinders the production of raw materials; There is excessive rainfall in the Hainan production area, which hinders local glue production; The rainfall in Yunnan's production areas is relatively low, and the production of raw materials has returned to normal. Recently, the overall output of raw materials has been hindered, and raw material prices have continued to rise, supported by the cost of natural rubber. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory, and inventory continues to decline. In addition, overseas factories have delayed shipping schedules, resulting in a relatively small number of mixed domestic standard adhesives arriving at the port, with a majority of deliveries arriving at the port, which has a certain boosting effect on the Tianjiao market.

2. Tire companies have seen a slight decline in operating rates

On the demand side, the overall operating rate of rubber tire enterprises has slightly decreased; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises has slightly declined, and overall shipments are good. Currently, most enterprises still have a shortage of snow tires. As enterprises gradually schedule production, the shortage phenomenon will be alleviated; The operating rate of all steel tires has remained basically stable, prices have been stable, and production has been scheduled. Recently, inventory has increased, and currently the main focus is on destocking.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, the recent rainfall in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has eased, and the output of raw materials continues to rise, and the purchase price may decline; At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and there is a certain demand and positive support for the natural rubber market in the short term; In addition, with the recent decline in futures trading, the price of natural rubber is weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

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