SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices have Risen significantly, causing Short-term High Volatility

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp continue to rise significantly after the holiday. On October 13th, the average market price of softwood pulp in the Shandong region was 6.360 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.41% compared to the average price of 6.150 RMB/ton on October 1st. On October 13th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in the Shandong region was 5.710 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.13% compared to the average price of 5.330 RMB/ton on October 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have risen strongly after the holiday. In terms of supply, the tight supply of hardwood pulp continues, while softwood pulp is relatively stable. However, the overall spot market for pulp is tight, with high prices rising. This week's mainstream port sample inventory was 18.86 million tons, an increase of 52,000 tons compared to the previous period, ending the previous month's continuous destocking trend. In addition, the increase in external pulp prices in October supported the domestic wood pulp market prices.

In terms of demand, downstream paper mills have a strong willingness to raise prices and have recently issued price increase notices, resulting in a continuous rebound in finished paper prices. October December is the traditional peak season for the paper industry, and the industry will increase production orders. There is a positive expectation of demand, supporting the trend of pulp prices. At present, the inventory of the paper mill is at a low level, and the willingness of downstream restocking will increase.

In terms of futures, on October 13th, the opening price of the Shanghai Stock Exchange pulp futures sp2401 contract was 6,360 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 6,388 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 0.25%, a trading volume of 729,100 hands, and a position of 316,066 hands.

SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current domestic pulp market is showing a dual strong supply and demand pattern, and domestic supply will remain high. The market generally has expectations for an increase in external prices in November, boosting domestic wood pulp spot prices. Coupled with strong demand expectations, it is expected that short-term wood pulp spot prices will continue to be strong and upward.

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