SunSirs: China MTBE Market first Rose and then Fell Last Week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market first rose and then fell. From October 9th to 13th, the price of MTBE dropped from 7,900 RMB/ton to 7,687 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.69% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.45%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.62%.

Before the National Day holiday, the MTBE price rose to a high point, but during the holiday period, international crude oil fell broadly. Under the pressure of this bearish situation, the MTBE fell to a certain low point. After the holiday, as end users moderately restocked, the price slightly rebounded, but the extent was limited. Subsequently, the market fell again due to the decline in crude oil and the slowdown in demand.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In the short term, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude. The mid-term supply-demand game will continue, with tight supply and slowing demand remaining the main themes of oil price trading. As of the close on October 12th, Brent crude oil futures have fallen, with the main contract settlement price at $86.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

In terms of demand and gasoline, the refined oil market in Shandong region is weak and difficult to improve, and the vast majority of refineries still focus on shipping as their marketing focus. With the decline of oil prices in the region, some middle and downstream merchants are gradually showing a willingness to buy on dips. When refinery shipments improve, they will cautiously push prices. However, due to the sluggish crude oil and the expected decline in a new round of retail price limits, the rebound in oil prices is limited. The demand for short-term MTBE is mixed.

On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Yantai Wanhua, and Dongying Qifa are still in parking. The Yantai Wanhua facility has plans to start construction, while the Maoming Shihua facility has maintenance plans. Overall, resource supply may increase slightly, but the MTBE supply side is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on October 12th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $11.68/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $946.37-948.37/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,422.49- $1,422.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $31.10 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,062.86- $1,063.22 per ton (299.40- $299.50 per gallon).

In the future, the mentality of the operators is poor, and the substantial positive demand for gasoline at the terminal is insufficient. The bearish mentality of the operators is still strong, and the MTBE spot supply is also relatively abundant. After the shutdown of equipment and the resumption of work by manufacturers, the operating rate remains high. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may continue to decline in the short term.

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