SunSirs: Peak Season Consumption Boosted, China ABS Market Rose strongly in September

In September, the domestic ABS market showed a positive trend, with spot prices of various brands increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of September 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12,000 RMB/ton, with a +10.06% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

In terms of supply: In September, the load of the ABS industry remained at a high level throughout the month, with an average monthly operating rate of around 91%, which was basically unchanged compared to the end of August. The on-site supply of goods was generally abundant. The inventory position significantly decreased in the first half of the month and accumulated slightly towards the end of the month. The supply side's support for the spot market is still sufficient.

In terms of raw materials: Since September, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been mixed, with the acrylonitrile market continuing to rise. The high price of raw material propylene is organized, and the cost of acrylonitrile is supported; The main downstream construction remains at a high level, with demand supporting acrylonitrile; The start of acrylonitrile production in September slightly decreased compared to August, with no pressure on inventory, and the acrylonitrile market continued to rise.

After the butadiene market surged in September, it tended to strengthen consolidation. The downstream synthetic rubber market has strengthened, driven by repeated price hikes by major production enterprises, while external prices have continued to rise. The market fundamentals are bullish, bringing a significant boost to the mindset of the industry. Although demand has cooled at the end of the month, there is support from overseas market news. The butadiene market fluctuates and consolidates.

The styrene market rose in September and then fell back. In the early days, Lianyungang Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shandong Lihuayi styrene plants underwent maintenance, resulting in low styrene inventory and a rising market. In the middle of the year, international oil prices fell, and the pure benzene market followed suit, leading to a collapse in cost support. In addition, the low inventory levels at the port in the early stage and the favorable dual reserve situation have basically exhausted, and downstream consumption has shifted to just demand. Styrene production and sales profits have decreased, spot transactions have been poor, and there are expectations of inventory accumulation, leading to a slight decline in prices. The current market guidance is relatively short, and the market may be difficult to rise or fall.

In terms of demand: September is the traditional peak season for ABS demand, with downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, showing a significant increase in stocking enthusiasm. Combined with the Federal Reserve's temporary interest rate hike, the macroeconomic situation is improving, and buyers have a certain upward trend, resulting in a booming market overall. But as downstream enterprises gradually complete their pre holiday stocking, the transaction situation in the latter half of the year gradually declines. In addition, the acceptance level of manufacturers has been affected by the previous increase in ABS prices, resulting in a contraction in demand at the end of the month.

In September, the upstream three materials of ABS overall strengthened, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants is at a high level, and social inventory is starting to accumulate in the latter half of the year. The peak season market on the demand side has released, and the stocking consumption at the end of the month has gradually subsided. It is expected that the ABS market may remain weak in the short term.

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