SunSirs: There Was No Obvious Driver of Supply and Demand, and PTA Prices Had Slightly Declined
September 06 2023 10:41:25 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market had shown a slight decline since September. As of September 5th, the average spot market price of PTA in East China was 6,173 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.09% compared to early September.
Analysis review
Cost side benefited support, supply tightening expectations continued to ferment, boosting the oil market, and international crude oil prices continued to rise, reaching new highs for the year. As of September 4th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at 88.55 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.45 US dollars or 0.51%.
PTA's own supply, affected by the typhoon, gradually restored the 235 ton production capacity in South China, and the domestic device load increased to a high level near 82%. In addition, downstream polyester production remained stable at a high level of 90%, and the polyester market price had slightly increased. However, the follow-up of terminal demand was weak, and attention needs to be paid to the impact of the Asian Games on polyester and weaving machines in the future.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that as of September 5th, the macro atmosphere was positive for the commodity market. In addition, there were still expectations for Saudi Arabia to implement a production reduction, oil prices remained optimistic, and macro and cost had support for PTA. However, there was no obvious drive from supply and demand, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The Asian Games may affect downstream polyester production, and it is expected that the PTA market will be weak and volatile.
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