SunSirs: Cost Support Weakened and PTA Price Lacked Power to Increase

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market fluctuated upward slightly this week (August 21-25), with an average market price of 6,081 RMB/ton in East China as of August 25, an increase of 1.03% compared to the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, crude oil rebounded from low levels, PX supply narrowed, and cost side support strengthened. At the same time, domestic macroeconomic policies were expected to have a positive commodity atmosphere, and PTA prices had rebounded from a low stage.

Market outlook

Although the average monthly processing cost of PTA in August fell to the lowest point in nearly a decade, unplanned PTA device maintenance was also limited, and the industry operating rate was above 80%. In addition, PTA's main suppliers sold distant sources of goods, spot supply in the market was relatively sufficient, and traders lacked enthusiasm for holding goods.

Downstream polyester production was still operating at a high level around 88%, with a relatively stable demand for PTA. The terminal textile market was currently in a transitional stage from off-season to peak season, and market purchases and sales will enter a preheating stage. At this stage, the support for raw materials was strong at the bottom, inquiry and shipment had significantly increased, and export orders for export had improved.

Market outlook

Recently, crude oil fluctuated and fell, the cost support for PTA decreased. As of August 24th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 79.05 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 83.36 US dollars per barrel. With the implementation of the device restart plan in the PX market, the domestic PX supply capacity had increased, and in early September, Hengli Petrochemical planned to repair the 3# 2.2 million ton PTA device. The contradiction between PX supply and demand still existed, which suppressed the upward trend of the PTA market to some extent. However, And the terminal was not in a hurry to purchase the raw materials because they were consumed raw materials prepared in the early stage, and it is expected that there will be significant upward pressure on PTA prices in the short term.

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