SunSirs: China MTBE Market is fluctuating and rising

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and rising. From July 31st to August 4th, the price of MTBE increased from 7,400 RMB/ton to 7,637 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 3.21% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 4.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.40%. The good trend of international crude oil has provided positive support to the market, and the demand for gasoline at the end of the market has continued to be good. At the same time, the spot supply of MTBE is relatively low, and under the dual positive support of supply and demand, the domestic MTBE market prices have fluctuated and risen.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: crude oil continues to rise, and there is profit taking and risk aversion behavior in the market. The expectation of tightening market supply in the later stage still plays a role, and it is expected that the oil market will still have upward momentum, but upward resistance will limit the upward range of oil prices. As of the close on August 3rd, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was at $81.55 per barrel, an increase of $2.06 or 2.6%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $85.14 per barrel, an increase of $1.94 or 2.3%. The domestic Petroleum industry chain is favorable.

In terms of demand and gasoline, there is room for international oil prices to rise, and the expected increase in domestic retail price limits is about to materialize. Therefore, the refined oil market in Shandong region is expected to remain strong. The high cost of refining still provides support for the price of gasoline in refineries, and the high demand gives refineries confidence in pricing. The demand side of MTBE is influenced by favorable factors.

As of the close on August 2nd, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $42/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $907.87-909.87/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $4/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,237.99- $1,238.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $3.94/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,046.35-1,046.71/ton (294.75-294.85 US cents per gallon).

According to future forecasts, the current inventory levels of manufacturers are not high, and the supply pressure is not high. At the same time, the gasoline market is expected to remain strong, and terminal demand remains. MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market is mainly characterized by high volatility.

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