SunSirs: Overall Consolidation and Operation of China Thermal Coal Prices in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall price of thermal coal stabilized in July. At the beginning of the month, the price of thermal coal increased, but in the middle of the month, it decreased and then increased. In the second half of the month, the price of thermal coal remained weak. On July 27th, the energy index stood at 949 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.21% from the highest point of ,1561 points in the cycle (2021-10-21), and an increase of 85.71% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 1, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

At the beginning of the month, the coal mines in the production area maintained normal production, with the main focus on implementing long-term cooperative shipping, and the overall coal supply was stable. In the middle of the month, as the weather gets hotter, the daily consumption of the power plant accelerates. However, with the replenishment of long-term coal and imported coal, the overall inventory is still in a high state. Traders are cautious and wait-and-see, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. A small number of non electrical industries such as cement and chemical industries have released demand, but due to high inventory, the main focus of trading is still on hard demand. In the middle to late ten days, the port prices are relatively strong and the market is operating. With the hot weather and the arrival of peak summer, the daily consumption of power plants is accelerating, and prices are relatively firm supported by seasonal demand. However, traders are cautious and cautious, and downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand. At the end of the month, the coal mines in the production area maintained normal production, and state-owned large mines actively ensured supply, with overall supply being relatively stable.

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the coal mine maintains normal production in terms of origin and overall supply is basically stable. In terms of downstream ports, power plants generally maintain high inventory, and downstream procurement is still mainly based on demand. Data shows that as of July 26, the inventory of the eight ports around Bohai Sea was 24.195 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons on a daily basis. Demand is currently uncertain, and it is expected that the price of thermal coal will rise weakly in the later stage, and the main trend is still consolidation operation. The specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

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