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SunSirs: Downstream Stocking Enthusiasm Was Not High, and the Price Increase of Polyester Filament Was Shrinking

July 27 2023 14:57:05     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

Recently, the domestic polyester filament market maintained an upward trend, but the overall increase had narrowed. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of July 26th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions had quoted polyester POY (150D/48F) at 7,600-8,150 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9,000-9,550 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8,250-8,750 RMB/ton. Polyester maintained a high starting point of over 90% overall. As raw materials rose, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increased, and inventory pressure had increased.

Analysis review

Cost support remained strong. Saudi Arabia and Russia further pushed for production cuts, supply tightening expectations remained unchanged, and US gasoline demand had rebounded, causing international crude oil prices to continue to rise. As of July 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 79.63 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 83.25 US dollars per barrel.

PX oscillated strongly with crude oil, and it was in a cumulative inventory cycle. The domestic PX operating load was low, but the landing of new PTA production capacity on the demand side drove the release of new points, and the supply-demand contradiction had not yet been highlighted. Recently, the domestic PTA market experienced a slight recovery after a short decline. As of July 26, the average price of spot market in East China was 5,916 RMB/ton, up 0.58% from July 18.

Against the backdrop of high raw material prices, downstream factories had low enthusiasm for stocking and a strong wait-and-see attitude. As of July 26th, the impact of high temperature power restrictions was not significant, but some factories had experienced a decrease in load due to the drag of capital chains, and the operating rate of terminal Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms had slightly decreased to below 65%. At the same time, the order situation of weaving factories was difficult to improve, and most of them focused on producing winter fabric inventory.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, crude oil and PX are still stronger, but the PTA plant is restarting, with more load increase and new production capacity released, and the pressure on PTA supply and demand is gradually emerging. At the same time, due to the impact of the Asian Games on the demand side, there may be expectations of reducing load in the Zhejiang region, and the willingness to purchase goods is not strong. Therefore, in the short term, there is limited room for the price increase of polyester filament.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com.

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