SunSirs: Supported by Favorable Cost, PTA Prices Fluctuated Upwards
June 25 2023 10:50:40 SunSirs (John)
Price trend
Recently, the domestic PTA Spot market showed a volatile upward trend. As of June 22, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 5,695 RMB/ton, up 1.77% from June 12.
Analysis review
The load reduction of large raw material PX devices led to a decrease in operating load, resulting in a tightening of PX supply. In the short term, prices may strengthen, providing positive support for PTA.
The profit performance of downstream polyester products was fair, the overall inventory of the market was reasonably controllable, and the factory production enthusiasm was high. As of 21st, the polyester industry started at more than 90%. And after the new device was put into operation, the load gradually increased, and it is expected that the overall market supply will slightly increase.
However, there were many restarts of PTA devices in China recently, and the operating load of PTA devices had increased to around 80%. At the same time, the off-season of terminals had dragged down the demand market, with some weaving factories shutting down for holidays or reducing operating rates. The comprehensive operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was around 60%, and there was no sign of improvement in the domestic and foreign markets for time being.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that short-term crude oil prices will fluctuate widely, and the tightening of PX supply may result in strong cost support for PTA. Downstream polyester factories did not have the power to actively reduce load, and will still maintain a relatively vigorous operating state. But in the situation where it is difficult to open terminal orders, there is still pressure on the demand side. Overall, PTA is expected to adjust mainly with cost fluctuations in the short term.
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