SunSirs: China Asphalt Market Fluctuates Narrowly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market fluctuates within a narrow range. From June 12th to 16th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,787 RMB/ton to 3,801 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.35%, a month on month increase of 2.11%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.75%. International crude oil has maintained a wide range of fluctuations, with varying regional demand performance. Asphalt in the northern region requires some support, and shipments are relatively smooth, with prices slightly increasing.

On the supply side, the main production enterprises include Xinjiang Meihuite, Dalian Jinyuan, Jincheng Petrochemical, and HSBC Petrochemical to resume asphalt production. Drive an increase in construction within the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.

On the cost side, in the first half of the week, due to the slow global economic recovery, some developed economies may have started to fall into recession. In addition, the global central bank's interest rate hike cycle has not yet stopped, suppressing expectations of energy demand growth, and the crude oil market price trend has declined. In the second half of the week, retail sales in the United States unexpectedly increased in May, supported by positive employment data. The significant increase in processing capacity of Chinese refineries has led to a rebound in the oil market. On June 16th, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil for SunSirs was 68.27 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -1.71% compared to the beginning of this month (69.46 US dollars per barrel). The international crude oil market is still in a low and volatile range. The domestic Petroleum industry chain is negatively affected.

On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demand in different regions. The demand in the northern region is still acceptable, while the rainfall in many southern regions and the rainy season in eastern China are important factors limiting market demand. The overall demand side of the asphalt market is biased towards bearish effects.

As of the close of June 16th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2310 was opened at 3,557 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,665 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,548 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,650 RMB/ton, up 98% or. 76% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 524,402 lots, a holding volume of 230,563 lots, and a daily increase of 27,121 lots.

In the future market forecast, supply continues to rebound and the market atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is weak. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that China domestic asphalt market will be mainly weak in the short term.

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