SunSirs: The Crude Oil Market is Declining, and Retail Prices of Refined Oil have been lowered again

The current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on June 13, and the retail price of refined oil has once again been lowered. During the price cycle, the crude oil market has declined, and the rate of change remains negative. This round of refined oil retail prices will be lowered for the sixth time this year.

Entering this pricing cycle, the negative value of the international crude oil change rate has narrowed. As of the 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.12/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.84/barrel. During this round of price adjustment, the international oil market is intertwined between long and short positions. On the one hand, the issue of the US debt ceiling has been resolved, and in addition, a statement issued after the 35th OPEC+ Oil Ministerial Conference shows that OPEC+ will continue the production reduction agreement reached in 2023 until the end of 2024; Saudi Arabia will reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels in July, which will support the upward trend of the crude oil market. Due to the slow global economic recovery in the later stage, some developed economies may have started to fall into recession. In addition, the global central bank's interest rate hike cycle has not yet stopped, suppressing expectations of energy demand growth, and the crude oil market price trend has declined. Overall, during this price adjustment cycle, crude oil prices were mainly volatile. As of the 13th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -1.31%. It is expected that gasoline will be reduced by 55 RMB/ton, diesel will be reduced by 50 RMB/ton, equivalent to an increase in price. 92# gasoline will be reduced 0.04 RMB/ton, 95# gasoline will be reduced 0.05 RMB/ton, and 0# diesel will be reduced 0.04 RMB/ton.

In terms of gasoline: The operating rate of Shandong Refinery and its main refineries has slightly increased, while the supply has increased. The operating rate of Shandong Refinery is around 66%. Recently, with the appearance of high temperature weather, the utilization rate of private car air conditioners has increased. In addition, the Dragon Boat Festival in June has formed a certain support for gasoline consumption, and the demand for gasoline has been guaranteed. Affected by the combination of multiple factors, the gasoline market is still supported, and the price fluctuates higher.

In terms of diesel: In June, some maintenance devices were restarted, and supply was slightly relaxed. In addition, diesel demand has entered a seasonal off-season. As the southern and northern regions gradually enter the hot and rainy season, the operating rate of outdoor infrastructure projects has declined, agricultural oil consumption has gradually decreased, and diesel demand has decreased. In addition, dealers are not proactive in purchasing, and businesses are very cautious when entering the market. The market purchasing and sales atmosphere is light, and the recent diesel market price has slightly declined.

The global oil market is still a long short game, and the news of production cuts will boost the crude oil market. However, the global economy still faces risks, interest rate hikes still exist, and the oil market still faces challenges. In the short term, the crude oil market will maintain a volatile trend. There has been a slight increase in the supply of domestic refined oil products; In terms of demand, the impact of high temperature weather in summer has led to an increase in the use of car air conditioners. In addition, with the upcoming Dragon Boat Festival holiday, travel rates may increase, so gasoline demand is guaranteed. It is expected that gasoline market prices may slightly rise; The summer harvest is gradually coming to an end, coupled with restrictions on outdoor infrastructure, and the demand for diesel has weakened. It is expected that the trend of the diesel market will still slightly decline.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.