SunSirs: Low Volatility in the Methanol Market in China

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level. From May 29th to June 2nd (as of 15:00 in the afternoon), the average price of the East China port in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,208 RMB/ton to 2,191 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price fell by 0.75%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.19%, a month on month decrease of 9.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22%.

The domestic methanol market is in a weak state, with weakened support for methanol production costs, the recovery of Baofeng units, an increase in domestic supply, and a decrease in local formaldehyde load, resulting in a decrease in methanol demand. As prices decline, traders and downstream sentiment weaken accordingly.

As of the close on June 2nd, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The main methanol futures contract 2309 opened at 2,060 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 2,110 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 2,018 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,089 RMB/ton in the end, an increase of 44 RMB/ton or 2.15% compared to the previous trading day's settlement. The trading volume was 2,461,887, the position was 1,922,656, and the daily increase was 48624.

On the cost side, there is a clear contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The price of raw coal is mainly weak. The cost of methanol is relatively weak.

On the demand side, downstream dimethyl ether: Qianjiang Jinhua Run parking and maintenance, Hebei Jichun lifting negative operation, with a slight increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: Shandong Chengtai and Shouguang Lu inventory start plans, MTBE demand may increase; Downstream formaldehyde: Shandong Lianyi's inventory is expected to decrease negative, and formaldehyde demand may weaken. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, Shanxi Yueanda, Sichuan Lutianhua, Jiuyuan Chemical, Anhui Quansheng, and Shanxi Guangda units have reduced production; Anyang smooth, Ningxia Baofeng, CNOOC Chemical, and Xiaoyi Pengfei devices have been restored. The overall recovery exceeds the loss, so the capacity utilization rate has increased this week. The supply side of methanol is negatively affected.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 1st, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $307.00- $309.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 78.00-81.00 cents per gallon; The FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 260.00-262.00 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.

According to future forecasts, supply remains abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs continue to be weak. SunSirs methanol analysts predict that China domestic methanol market may continue to be weak.

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