SunSirs: The Cost Side Atmosphere Had Improved, and the Price of Polyester Filament Slightly Increased

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of domestic polyester filament had slightly rebounded recently. As of May 25th, mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions had quoted prices of 7,350-7,750 RMB/ton for polyester POY (150D/48F), 8,700-9,200 RMB/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity), and 8,050-8,400 RMB/ton for polyester FDY (150D/96F).

Analysis review

The unexpected significant decline in US crude oil inventories, coupled with a public speech by the Saudi Energy Minister, had raised concerns about further production cuts by OPEC+ countries. On May 24th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 74.34 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.43 US dollars or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was 78.36 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.52 US dollars or 2.0%.

In May, the PTA maintenance equipment in China remained concentrated, and the industry's operating rate was lowered to below 75%. Supply is expected to shrink, with short-term supply reduction and demand increase, and the accumulation of inventory decreasing. On May 25, the price of domestic PTA spot market rose slightly, and the average price in East China was 5,599 RMB/ton, up 1.27% from May 16.

Driven by the warming atmosphere at the raw material end, there were replenishment actions by downstream, and the weaving enterprise's start-up rate had slightly increased to over 60%. However, the textile market orders were still dominated by rigid orders, and new foreign trade orders were also relatively weak, resulting in a relatively small overall order volume.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the crude oil market was relatively strong, with more short-term PTA maintenance. However, processing fees had gradually been fixed with the decline of PX, and it is expected that the enthusiasm for subsequent construction will increase. With the restoration of profits, the construction of polyester factories rebounded, but its sustainability is difficult to maintain, and the downstream terminal market was weak and showing signs of fatigue. It is expected that in the short term, the cost side atmosphere will improve and the price of polyester filament will stabilize and rise, but there is still some pressure on the demand side.

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