SunSirs: Supply Shortage? Isobutyraldehyde Surged 39.91%

Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply after the holiday. The domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde rose from 7,433.33 RMB/ton on April 28 to 10,400.00 RMB/ton on May 8, up 2,966.67 RMB/ton, up 39.91%, down 31.43% year on year.

On May 8th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 52.79 points, an increase of 4.48 points from the previous day, a decrease of 50.00% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 75.27% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From a supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers significantly increased after Labor Day. The polyol plant of Luxi Chemical was shut down, resulting in tight spot circulation of isobutyraldehyde and an urgent supply. The ex factory price of Lihuayi isobutyraldehyde after the holiday was 8,200 RMB/ton, which wass an increase of 900 RMB/ton compared to before the holiday; The market price of isobutyraldehyde of Luxi Chemical after the festival was 10,500 RMB/ton, which was 3,100 RMB/ton higher than that before the festival; The factory price of Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde after the festival was 12,500 RMB/ton, which is an increase of 4,900 RMB/ton compared to before the festival.

Upstream support was average, downstream demand increased, and spot supply was tight

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde slightly declined after the holiday. The price of propylene decreased from 7,052.60 RMB/ton on April 28 to 6,918.60 RMB/ton on May 8, a decrease of 1.90% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.39%. Insufficient upstream cost support had a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol significantly increased after the holiday. The market price of neopentyl glycol increased from 10,266.67 RMB/ton on April 28 to 10,766.67 RMB/ton on May 8, an increase of 4.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.88%. The downstream market had significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

In mid to late May, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Upstream propylene prices slightly declined, with average cost support. However, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. At the same time, some manufacturers stopped for maintenance, and the supply side was still tight. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend was upward. SunSirs isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials. Pay attention to the resumption of production by manufacturers in the future market

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