SunSirs: Under the Drag of Weak Demand, the Price Center of Polyester Filament Shifted Downwards

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the focus of domestic polyester filament prices had recently shifted slightly. As of the 19th, mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions quoted polyester POY (150D/48F) at 7,650-7,950 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9,050-9,450 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8,350-8,500 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

As of the 19th, cost support had continued. In the unexpected announcement of production cuts by OPEC+ member countries, the bullish atmosphere in the international crude oil market had heated up, maintaining strong volatility. As of April 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 80.90 US dollars per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 84.77 US dollars per barrel. At the same time, PX's domestic and foreign factories and devices were undergoing centralized maintenance, and the market supply continued to be tight, continuing to drive up PX prices. With this boost, the domestic PTA spot market also hit a new high in the past six months. As of April 19, the PTA market price in East China was 6,488 RMB/ton.

However, weak demand had significantly dragged down the situation. Since April, new orders for domestic and foreign terminal weaving have continued to decline, and in a state of production losses, domestic terminal enterprises were still accelerating their production cuts and shutdowns, especially in the texturing process. Some major texturing bases had even experienced large-scale production reductions, and the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions had decreased to below 60%. Foreign demand was still weak. From January to March 2023, the cumulative export of textile and clothing reached 67.23 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.8%, with textile exports reaching 32.07 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.1%, and clothing exports reaching 35.16 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.3%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that there is still good support for the current cost side, but downstream end enterprises have poor stocking enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory, and new orders for domestic and foreign trade are limited. The textile industry is about to enter the off-season, and the negative impact of demand will be amplified. The subsequent construction of the weaving industry will further decrease, so the price of polyester filament will remain weak operation mainly.

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