SunSirs: The Industrial Fundamentals Slightly Improved, and the Market for SBR Had Slightly Increased

Price trend

Since late March, the market for SBR has slightly increased. According to data monitoring from SunSirs, as of April 18th, the price of SBR 1502 was 11,491 RMB/ton, a slight increase of 1.77% from 11,291 RMB/ton on March 23rd. Although the price of raw material butadiene decreased, the price of styrene slightly increased, and cost support had improved compared to the previous period; The operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and lacked new demand for SBR; Lanzhou Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, Li Changrong and other SBR plants had been operating under reduced load, and the pressure on the supply side of SBR had slightly eased; In the cycle, the ex factory price of SBR rose slightly, and the recent price of natural rubber rose slightly, driving the price of SBR market to rise slightly.

Analysis review

Lanzhou Petrochemical, Fushun Petrochemical, Li Changrong and other SBR plants had been operating under reduced load, and the pressure on the supply side of SBR had slightly eased.

The price of raw material butadiene had significantly decreased, while the price of styrene had narrowly stabilized. The cost support for SBR had improved compared to the previous period. According to monitoring by SunSirs, as of April 18th, the price of butadiene was 8,384 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from 8,575 RMB/ton on March 23rd. As of April 18th, the price of styrene was 8,516 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.10% from 8,341 RMB/ton on March 23rd.

The natural rubber market had been fluctuating and consolidating in a narrow range for nearly a month, with prices rising after bottoming out in early April, providing support for SBR. As of April 18th, the price was 11,430 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.97% from 11,320 RMB/ton on March 23rd and 1.96% from 11,210 RMB/ton on April 7th.

Demand side: Downstream tire production fluctuated slightly, with strong rigid support for rubber. In addition, recently, Shanghai rubber prices rebounded, which had a greater impact on SBR. It is understood that as of early April 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region was 69%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises was 73%.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that although the price of natural rubber recently rose, inventory still accumulated, making it difficult to be optimistic about the impact on SBR in the later stage; In addition, there is no significant improvement in downstream construction in the short term, making it difficult for the demand for SBR to have greater benefits; However, the reduction in raw materials and equipment burden had a certain positive impact on SBR. It is expected that the SBR market may continue to experience a slight increase in the short term, but more substantial positive support is still needed in the medium to long term.

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