SunSirs: Butadiene Market Situation Is Stagnant and Sorted

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the butadiene market is stagnant and organized. From March 31 to April 7, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 8,551 RMB/ton to 8,575 RMB/ton, with a 0.26% drop in the price during the cycle and a 7.55% month on month drop in the price. The first phase of the Zhejiang Petrochemical plant has restarted, gradually releasing production, and the supply side is relatively empty. At the same time, the decline in external market conditions has dragged down the weak atmosphere of the domestic butadiene market.

Analysis review

In terms of cost and crude oil: crude oil continued to rise, OPEC unexpectedly cut its output significantly, the international crude oil boom drove market sentiment, and the domestic market surged, hitting the peak in the year, giving the market some support. In terms of naphtha, the Shandong naphtha market rose first and then fell, but was hindered from rising. The cost of butadiene has a positive impact.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene at Sinopec East China Sales Company remains stable at 8,700 RMB/ton. Dongming Petrochemical's 50,000 ton/year butadiene unit is operating steadily, with normal sales of goods and a price of 8,600 RMB/ton. The 160,000 ton/year butadiene extraction unit of Fushun Petrochemical operates stably, with 300 tons of goods sold through bidding, with a bidding bottom price of 79,00 RMB/ton; The transaction price is between 8,240-8,250 RMB/ton.

On the demand side, the main downstream synthetic rubber market for butadiene has experienced mixed fluctuations: some products have seen price increases due to strong fluctuations in crude oil prices, while others have seen market declines due to weak downstream demand. Some products have remained stable in factory prices since the beginning of the new month. The demand for butadiene is still weak.

In terms of external trading: On April 6th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia fell. In South Korea, the price dropped by 10 US dollars per ton from 1,085 US dollars per ton to 1,095 US dollars per ton; The Chinese CFR quotation was 1,095- 1,105 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at 765-775 US dollars per ton, down 30 US dollars per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 865-875 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

Market outlook

The coexistence of new production capacity production and device restart, coupled with the weak market trend of downstream products, has continued to put pressure on profits in some industries. SunSirs butadiene analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to be weaker in the short term.

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