SunSirs: In March, the BR Market Saw a Significant Decline

Price trend

The BR market saw a significant decline in March. According to data monitoring from SunSirs, as of March 31, the price of BR was 11,220 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.27% from the beginning of the month at 12,100 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The price of raw material butadiene had significantly decreased, and the cost support for BR weakened; In March, the operating rate of downstream tire factories fluctuated slightly, and the new demand for BR was weak. In late March, the market turnover was light, the ex factory price of BR dropped significantly, and the market price of BR fell.

Supply side: The supply side of BR fluctuated slightly in March. The 130,000 ton/year units of Shengyu Chemical and Shandong Wanda had been shut down since mid January and restarted in late March, resulting in a slight increase in the supply of BR in the later stage.

Cost side: In March, the price of butadiene decreased, while the cost side of BR significantly decreased. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 8,551 RMB/ton, a decrease of 11.96% from the price of 9,712 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fell in March, which had a bearish impact on BR. As of March 31st, the price was at 11,525 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.11% from the price of 12,020 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: The operating rate of downstream tire enterprises in March temporarily remained around 70%, and there was no significant increase in demand for BR. In addition, with the low price of natural rubber, BR had no obvious advantage, and the demand for BR in March was mainly weaker.

Market outlook

Analysts from SunSirs believe that there was no significant increase in downstream operating rates, and the demand for BR was weak in the short term. The price of raw materials decreased, and the cost of BR declined. However, multiple oil producing countries had jointly reduced production, and international crude oil prices may operate at a high level. The cost of BR may be further supported. Overall, it is expected that BR will consolidate weakly in the short term, and there are still opportunities for upward growth in the medium to long term.

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