SunSirs: Negative Pressure, China Soybean Meal Market Fell for more than One Month

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, since December, the demand for terminal feed has been sluggish, the situation of tight soybean meal supply has improved, the market has entered a downward channel, and the price has continued to oscillate and fall, falling by more than 9%. On December 1, the average market price of soybean meal was 5,026 RMB/ton. On January 11, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,544 RMB/ton, down 9.59%.

The main reasons for the continuous oscillation and decline of soybean meal market in this round are as follows: 1. The quantity of imported soybeans as raw materials on the supply side has increased, and the supply of soybean meal has improved. 2. On the demand side, the demand of feed industry declined, and the demand for soybean meal was poor.

Supply: After November, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong has gradually recovered, reaching 7.35 million tons, and the situation of soybean oil plants' shortage of soybeans has been alleviated. Since December, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong has continued to increase, estimated at about 9 million tons. The supply of raw material imported soybeans has warmed up, the soybean oil plants have started to recover, and the soybean meal inventory has continued to grow.

Inventory: In December, the soybean meal inventory rebounded from the bottom, and the quantity continued to rise, increasing for several consecutive weeks, from about 200,000 tons at the end of November to 500,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of about 13%. After the New Year's Day, the soybean meal inventory continued to maintain the growth trend, increasing to 550,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of about 50%.

Demand side: before the Double Festival, the demand for meat increased, pigs were sold out, and the demand for feed continued to decline. The feed factory mainly purchased raw materials on the sidelines, and the quantity of soybean meal purchased decreased. The soybean oil factory lacked confidence in price fixing, and lowered the ex-factory price of soybean meal one after another. The feed raw material market ushered in a wave of price reduction, and the soybean meal market followed.

SunSirs agricultural product analyst at the Business Society, believes that the spring festival is coming, and the soybean oil plants have started the shutdown and maintenance plan in succession, and the pressure on the supply of soybean meal is reduced, and the market in the future may stop falling and stabilize.

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