SunSirs: The Chloroform Market Fluctuated and Declined in 2022

Price trend

In 2022, the market price of chloroform fluctuated and declined. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of December 30, the market price of chloroform in Shandong was 2,237 RMB/ton, down 48.86% from 4,375 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year. With the high cost in the first half of the year and the peak demand season, chloroform had stepped out of the first wave in the year, with the peak at 5,925 RMB/ton in early April; Although the cost rose again in the second half of the year, due to the low demand in the off-season, the second peak of chloroform dropped significantly. The second highest point in the year was 4,350 RMB/ton on October 18.

Analysis review

On the cost side: The price of raw methanol in 2022 showed a "M" trend, with two highs of 3,142 RMB/ton and 3,206 RMB/ton in March and October respectively. The cost side drove the price trend of chloroform to form two peaks.

Supply side: In 2022, the domestic production capacity of methane chloride increased by 260,000 tons/year, and the supply side of chloroform continued to be loose. According to SunSirs, at the beginning of 2022, Dongyue added 100,000 t/a units to the original 280,000 t/a capacity; In May 2022, an additional 160,000 t/a methane chloride unit was put into operation in Dongying Huatai.

Demand side: R22 production quota and domestic production quota in 2022 was 224,807 tons and 133,534 tons respectively, both of which were equal to those in 2021. The consumption of chloroform remained unchanged. Under the pattern of increased supply and no new demand, the price of chloroform declined as a whole. According to SunSirs, the R22 production quota and the domestic production quota in 2023 will be 181,847 tons and 110,953 tons respectively, both of which will be significantly reduced compared with 2022. In the future, the consumption of chloroform will be further reduced.

Market outlook

The geopolitical crisis pushed up energy prices, but the global economic recession dragged down energy prices. In this context, the price of coal and other energy in 2023 will be lower than the peak in 2022 but higher than the average in recent years. Affected by this, the price of methanol will also fluctuate widely, and the cost of chloroform will still fluctuate.

Supply side: In 2023, there will still be new methane chloride devices such as Dongying Huatai Phase II which are planned to be put into operation, and the pressure on the supply side will continue to increase.

Demand side: The production quota of R22 in the main downstream will further decline in 2023, and the support of demand for chloroform will continue to weaken.

To sum up, the chloroform analysts of SunSirs believe that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate in the range of 2,200~4,800 RMB/ton in 2023 under the influence of costs and off peak seasons, and the prices will rise slightly in the peak season as the downstream domestic sales and foreign trade recover, while the off peak season will basically maintain a low consolidation trend.

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