SunSirs: The Driving Force of the Dmand Side is Weakened, and the Polyester Price will Bear Pressure

According to the monitoring of the SunSirs, since December, the domestic polyester filament market price has shown an upward trend, including polyester DTY up 6.28%, polyester POY up 5.74%, and polyester FDY up 3.54%. At present, for mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, polyester POY (150D/48F) is quoted at 7100-7250 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is quoted at 8450-8700 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) is quoted at 7950-8350 RMB/ton.

The support on the cost side of polyester fiber was strengthened. Recently, the crude oil price fluctuated upward, pushing up the PTA price. As of December 28, the average price of the domestic PTA spot market in East China was 5606 RMB/ton, up 9.59% from December 7. At the same time, there are still many PTA maintenance and production reduction devices. At present, the industry's operating rate is around 62%, and the capacity operation rate is at a low level in the year, which to some extent offset the pressure of supply increment brought by PTA's new capacity.

In the downstream market, with the optimization of epidemic prevention policies, the demand side is facing phased improvement, and the stock has increased. However, it is not sustainable enough. At present, it is still cautious and wait-and-see. There is basically no large amount of stock preparation, and it is mainly to purchase raw materials at the right time. With the weakening of the driving force of the demand side, the polyester market probably returns to the stage of accumulated inventory.

Analysts from the SunSirs believe that there is still some positive support on the cost side at present, but the downstream market is not clear after the festival, so the stock preparation before the Spring Festival is cautious, and the possibility of large stock preparation is small; On the other hand, the downstream benefit is not good this year and the year-end payment collection is not optimistic. It is expected that the driving force of polyester filament price rise will be suppressed to some extent.

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