SunSirs: Dimethyl Carbonate Continued to Decline in 2022-Ⅰ

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of December 22, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 4,833 RMB/ton, which was 3,900 RMB/ton lower than that of January 1, 2022 (8,733 RMB/ton), with a decline of 44.66%.

In 2022, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market first fell and then rose, and the overall market still ended in a downward trend after a small rebound in the trough. The trend of dimethyl carbonate is analyzed in two parts below.

Part I (January 1-May 10)

In January 2022, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream of dimethyl carbonate began to prepare for the Spring Festival one after another. The downstream demand performed well, and the supply pressure of the factory was small. The market price of dimethyl carbonate rose steadily all the way up, up 13.74% in January. In early February, after the Spring Festival, the start recovery of downstream of dimethyl carbonate was slow, the demand was cold, and the market of dimethyl carbonate declined. In late February, domestic devices were put into operation successively, the supply of dimethyl carbonate increased, the downstream demand side continued to be weak, the supply and demand were unbalanced, and the decline of dimethyl carbonate intensified, with a decline of 37.58% in February. In March and April, the market on the raw material side went down, the cost support of dimethyl carbonate was loose, the logistics in some regions was limited, the supply and demand circulation was slow, and the downstream operating rate was low. Under the weak supply and demand, the focus center of dimethyl carbonate continued to fall deeply. On May 10, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate fell to about 4,866 RMB/ton, a drop of 44.27% compared with the beginning of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 51.01%.

Part II (May 11-December 22)

In the middle and late of May, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market experienced a rebound from a low point. The cost support given by the rising raw material market increased. In addition, the export sector welcomed a favorable situation. Export orders increased. The pressure on the supply of dimethyl carbonate in the market eased, and the market price finally warmed up. In June, the positive export situation continued, and the tight supply of dimethyl carbonate continued to support the market. In July, the downstream electrolyte market of dimethyl carbonate gradually recovered, and the demand was also boosted. Dimethyl carbonate rose all the way to the middle of August. On August 14, the market price of dimethyl carbonate was near 7,566 RMB/ton.

In late August, the downstream stock of dimethyl carbonate slowed down, mainly to digest raw materials, and the market price fell again for nearly a month. On September 12, the market price of dimethyl carbonate was near 6,383 RMB/ton.

In the middle and late September, at the beginning of the National Day, the downstream started to prepare goods in stages, and the dimethyl carbonate market stopped falling and rose slightly. In October, after the National Day holiday, part of the downstream continued to replenish. The market of dimethyl carbonate once rose for a short time. However, as the downstream demand turned weak, and the raw material market also fell from a high level, the dimethyl carbonate market started a weak downward trend in the middle and late October, and the market fell into a downward channel for nearly 50 days again due to various negative conditions. On December 22, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 4,833 RMB/ton, down 44.66% compared with the beginning of the year.

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