SunSirs: The Market Price of Petroleum Coke of China Petroleum Refining Corporation Fell in Shock Last Week

According to the data of SunSirs, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell in shock last week. On December 18, the average price of Shandong market was 3,359.00 RMB/ton, down 2.18% from 3,434.00 RMB/ton on December 12.

On December 18, the petroleum coke commodity index was 261.26, unchanged from the previous day, 36.08% lower than the cycle's highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 290.58% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

The price of petroleum coke in refineries fell last week, and the local refining enterprises' shipments were average. The petroleum coke market was fully supplied, and the downstream people had a strong wait-and-see mentality, mainly purchasing on demand.

Upstream: The international crude oil price rose. The US ISM non manufacturing index unexpectedly increased in November, reflecting that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve's transition from "dove" to "eagle", which may disappoint the Federal Reserve's previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provides the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path. The activity of American oil and gas drilling platforms has decreased, OPEC+has maintained its production reduction measures, and the recent international crude oil market has experienced a "six consecutive declines" or a technical rebound that temporarily supported oil prices. However, because the inflation index is still higher than expected, the probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates by 50 basis points is still high. In addition, in the context of the increased risk of global economic recession, the slowing down of demand growth in the future is a certainty. The overall economy is weak, and the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic. The economic weakness has depressed oil prices.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke was basically stable last week; The price of metal silicon market declined slightly; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell. As of December 18, the price was 18,853.33 RMB/ton; At present, downstream carbon enterprises are under great financial pressure, mainly purchasing on demand.

SunSirs oil coke analysts  believe that: the international crude oil rose last week, and the cost of oil coke was supported; At present, domestic petroleum coke storage is at a high level, and downstream enterprises are in a strong wait-and-see mood. They purchase on demand, and local refining enterprises are under pressure for shipment. It is expected that the price of China locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.

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