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SunSirs: Mismatch between Supply and Demand & Weak Raw Materials Market, China EVA Drops

December 13 2022 11:16:12     SunSirs (Selena)

Recently, the weak market of domestic EVA market has continued, and the price drop has been particularly concentrated in the past two weeks. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17,566.67 RMB/ton on November 27, and 13,800 RMB/ton on December 11, a drop of 21.44% in half a month.

At present, the upstream ethylene raw material side is weak, and the supply side has news of the resumption of Korean equipment, leading to bearish sentiment in the market. Downstream users purchase cautiously, and the offer price is stable and weak. Vinyl acetate is in the traditional off-season market. In addition, the port has abundant supply of goods, so the market momentum is generally weak. All raw materials have limited support for EVA.

In recent half months, the load of domestic EVA manufacturers has increased from about 60% to 71%, and the total output in half a month is about 58,500 tons. Market supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and competition is fierce. The supply side's support for spot goods was poor, and petrochemical enterprises significantly reduced the ex factory price, mostly around 3,000-5,000 RMB/ton.

In the near future, EVA demand continues to be weak, and the market trading atmosphere is bleak. Downstream procurement is just in demand and consumption is insufficient. Among them, the shipment smoothness of photovoltaic materials is particularly poor, and the demand for foaming materials has not improved, so it is hard to be optimistic. Businessmen continued to be pessimistic, and the offer continued to fall with the petrochemical plant. There is a large space for negotiation of actual orders in the market, and the operation is mainly to give up profits and take orders.

To sum up, EVA market has fallen rapidly since half a month ago, and the main negative factor is the persistence of the market's staged supply and demand mismatch pattern. There is ample supply of goods and high inventory. Downstream enterprises are cautious, just need to supplement the warehouse to follow up the lag, and the market trading atmosphere is cold. At the same time, the upstream ethylene and vinyl acetate market is weak, which lacks support for EVA. After half a month's sharp fall, EVA's price position has become closer to the cost price. Although the supply pressure is difficult to improve in the short term, it is expected that China domestic EVA market will be narrowed by the bottoming of the cost line.

 

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