Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the PTA market has been fluctuating upwards recently. As of January 26th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,341 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.63% compared to January 19th. The expected spring maintenance of PX plants had created a tight supply situation, while the downstream polyester industry's steady capacity expansion was driving strong demand. Driven by both cost and demand factors, coupled with zero new capacity additions and the elimination of outdated capacity, the supply-demand balance in the PTA market had improved, boosting PTA prices.
Market Analysis
In the PX market, concentrated maintenance in the spring had further exacerbated the tight supply situation. The second quarter will see a peak period for global PX plant maintenance, with planned maintenance capacity exceeding 7.6 million tons in China. Maintenance in Japan, South Korea, and other regions is also expected, resulting in an overall supply reduction of approximately 5%. Domestically, several plants, including those of Sinopec and Zhejiang Petrochemical, have already undergone planned maintenance in the first quarter, and the expected supply contraction is supporting strong PX prices, with cost-driven factors continuing to strengthen.
Regarding supply, the low processing fees have led to an increase in PTA plant maintenance shutdowns. Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million-ton plant shut down on January 14th; Zhuhai BP's 1.25 million-ton plant shut down on January 16th. As of January 26, the PTA industry operating rate was around 75%. In the first quarter, the estimated PTA maintenance capacity exceeds 12 million tons, and in the second quarter, it exceeds 27 million tons, accounting for over 40% of the total capacity. Furthermore, the PTA industry will enter a capacity vacuum period in 2026, with no new capacity coming online, leading to a further contraction in supply.
In terms of end-user demand, in the short term, seasonal weakness is evident, with downstream polyester production cuts intensifying. Terminal weaving capacity has accelerated its decline to 48%, and factories are beginning to take extended holidays to digest raw material inventories. However, due to the rapid increase in raw material prices, there is some passive restocking occurring. Looking ahead, nearly 5 million tons of new capacity are planned for commissioning in the polyester industry in 2026, representing a growth rate of 5.2%. The steady expansion of the polyester industry will continue to drive PTA demand growth.
Market Outlook:
According to analysts at SunSirs, in the short term, cost factors will continue to provide support, but the gradual reduction in production at downstream polyester factories during the Spring Festival will weigh on demand, thus limiting the upward movement of PTA prices. In the medium to long term, as the concentrated period of PTA capacity expansion ends, processing margins will gradually improve, therefore the long-term outlook remains positive.
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