Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from January 12th to 16th, the domestic BDO price remained at 7,357 RMB/ton, maintaining a stable price compared to the previous period, but falling by 13.15% year-on-year. Both supply and demand increased, but a supply-demand gap still existed. Furthermore, negative policies regarding exports were announced, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among industry participants. Downstream companies were either digesting existing inventory or only purchasing for immediate needs, and the pre-Chinese New Year stocking atmosphere was generally weak. The negotiation and bargaining between suppliers and buyers intensified, resulting in a narrow range of fluctuations in the domestic BDO market.

Market analysis

On the supply side, regarding production facilities, Sichuan Yongying had restarted but had not yet produced any products, Lanshan Tunhe's second phase had restarted, and Hengli's plant load had increased, leading to a higher industry capacity utilization rate and weaker support from the supply side. Meanwhile, on January 8th, the EU announced the imposition of high provisional anti-dumping duties on BDO originating from mainland China; the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for BDO and other products starting from April 1, 2026, further intensifying the cautious and bearish sentiment in the market. These factors from BDO supply side negatively impacted the market.

Statistics on the operating status of equipment at some manufacturing companies:

From a cost perspective, regarding raw materials: Calcium carbide prices remained stable in the domestic market, with regional variations in supply. In Shaanxi province, supply was decreasing, leading to regional shortages. Regarding methanol: Domestic methanol inventories remained high, and due to poor downstream profitability and weak demand, the high inventory situation is unlikely to improve in the short term, putting downward pressure on the market. As of 3:00 PM on January 16th, the reference price for methanol in Taicang was 2,220 RMB/ton. The stable calcium carbide market and the continuously weak methanol market had a mixed impact on BDO production costs.

On the demand side, increased operating rates in downstream PTMEG, PBT, TPU, and PU slurry production had led to increased consumption of raw materials, supporting suppliers' confidence in maintaining stable market prices. However, the downstream industry was experiencing weak market conditions and cost pressures, leading to a desire for price negotiations on raw materials. The impact of BDO demand was therefore mixed.

Market outlook

Recently, the restart and increased production at Sichuan Yongying and Wanhua plants led to an increase in supply; PTMEG production is expected to increase in the next period, while other industries show little fluctuation, resulting in increased demand. According to SunSirs’ BDO analyst, the domestic BDO market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see and consolidation phase.

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