On December 12, the main contract for asphalt futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose amid volatility. As of press time, it had gained 0.10% to settle at 2,976.00 yuan per ton, having touched an intraday high of 2,985.00 yuan and a low of 2,903.00 yuan.
Spot Market: On December 11, mainstream transaction prices for domestic heavy-duty asphalt across regions were as follows: Shandong: ¥2,930/ton East China: ¥3,150/ton North China: ¥2,980/ton South China: ¥3,010/ton Southwest China: ¥3,390/ton Northwest China: ¥3,590/ton Northeast China: ¥3,460/ton
This week, the total domestic refinery asphalt inventory level stood at 27.21%, up 0.21% week-on-week. Domestic asphalt plant operating rates stood at 33.12%, down 1.28% week-on-week. As refineries' winter stockpiling policies gradually take effect, Baichuan Yingfu anticipates that considering refinery capacity utilization, inventory levels, and cost-profit dynamics, this year's winter stockpiling prices will likely fall to near five-year lows. Winter asphalt stockpiling prices are projected to range between 2,800-2,900 yuan/ton. Asphalt prices have recently fluctuated around 3,000 yuan/ton, showing temporary support. However, further declines cannot be ruled out if oil prices continue to shift downward. The near-term outlook remains for low-level consolidation in futures markets, with attention focused on winter stockpiling releases.
On the supply side:
Domestic heavy-grade asphalt capacity utilization showed no significant change, while shipments declined slightly; while low-refining capacity utilization rose slightly to 61.9%. Social inventories remained stable, while factory inventories continued to accumulate modestly. On the demand side, temperatures in most northern regions dropped below freezing in mid-December, effectively concluding downstream terminal demand. Demand has been sluggish, shifting toward restocking by operators. Southern regions, benefiting from suitable temperatures, entered a phase of concentrated demand release, briefly boosting construction activity. Spot prices continued their downward trend after breaching the 3,000 yuan/ton threshold, fostering bearish sentiment or caution regarding winter stockpiling prices. Overall, asphalt is likely to follow crude oil's downward trajectory in the short term, with its overall transaction center of gravity expected to decline further. It is projected to passively track crude oil but perform slightly weaker, warranting a continued bearish outlook.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 14th, the benchmark price for asphalt, according to SunSirs, was 3110.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.60% compared to the beginning of the month (2973.33 RMB /ton).
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