Price trend
According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from January 19th to 23rd, the domestic price of BDO remained at 7,357 RMB/ton, stable compared to the previous period, but down 12.41% year-on-year. Both supply and demand increased, but the supply-demand gap widened. Downstream companies showed a generally lukewarm attitude towards stocking up for the Spring Festival, focusing on digesting existing inventory or fulfilling existing contracts. Some manufacturers were cautious and bearish in their operations, prioritizing sales. The domestic BDO market remained largely in a wait-and-see mode.
The support from raw material was strong
On the supply side, regarding production facilities, the second phase of the Lanshan Tunhe plant was operating stably after restarting, and the Sichuan Yongying plant was also producing products after its restart. The increased supply of goods in the market had weakened support from the supply side. The BDO supply side was bearish for market.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at some manufacturing companies:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe |
The first phase waas parked on August 27, 2024. The second and third phases were in stable operation |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant load 70-80% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
The two sets of 200,000-ton units were relatively stable in operation |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 70,000+70,000 tons/year plant were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Wanhua |
Parking and maintenance in early January until January 24 |
From a cost perspective, regarding calcium carbide as a raw material: the domestic calcium carbide market is experiencing an upward trend, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and a temporary shortage of supply. Supply was contracting in Inner Mongolia due to power rationing, and some power plant malfunctions in Shaanxi and Ningxia have led to a decrease in calcium carbide furnace operations, exacerbating the market supply shortage. Regarding methanol as a raw material: the methanol market was fluctuating and consolidating. As of 10:00 AM on January 23rd, the reference price for methanol in Taicang was 2,260 RMB/ton. The rising price of calcium carbide and the fluctuating methanol market have a mixed impact on BDO production costs.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG and PBAT production had increased, but the increase in demand was not keeping pace with the increase in supply, leading to a widening supply-demand gap in the industry. The impact of BDO demand was mixed.
Market outlook
With the increased production at Sichuan Yongying's plant and the restart and increased output at Wanhua's plant, supply has increased; GBL-NMP production has increased, while other industries remain relatively stable, leading to increased demand; raw materials calcium carbide and methanol are experiencing narrow fluctuations, and the BDO industry still faces pressure from losses. According to SunSirs’ BDO analyst, the domestic BDO market is expected to remain in a wait-and-see and consolidation phase.
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